How it works

Think of every FBS team as a stock. Saturday is earnings day. Each team has a number it is supposed to hit, and its price moves on how far above or below that number it lands.

1 · Opening price

Each team opens the season at a price set by its preseason rating. An average team opens near 100, a contender near 150.

2 · The bar

Before every game, the model sets an expected margin: the rating gap between the two teams plus home field. That's the number to beat.

3 · The surprise

After the game, the surprise is how far the result landed from the bar. It blends two things:

• The scoreboard: actual margin vs. expected margin (capped, so running up the score only counts so much).
• Per-play efficiency: how well a team moved the ball and stopped the other side, play by play. A lucky win counts for less than a dominant one.

4 · The move

• A normal week moves a price about 3%.
• The biggest moves top out near 10%.
• Losing as the favorite costs extra. We call it MISSED GUIDANCE.
• Beating an FCS team moves a price 2% at most. Losing to one is a different story.
• A bye week = 0%. Trading halt.

5 · Sectors

Conferences are sectors. A sector's index is the average price of its teams, and its season % is the change since preseason.

The lingo

• Ticker: a team's short name, like UK or OKST.
• Price: where a team trades right now. Higher = stronger body of work.
• Season %: change since the preseason open. It shows who beat their own expectations, not who's best.
• MISSED GUIDANCE: lost as the favorite.
• Upset win: won as the underdog.
• Trading halt: bye week, no move.
• Market breadth: how many teams went up vs. down this week.

The fine print

All game data comes from public sources (CollegeFootballData.com). No betting lines or odds go into the model. Prices are a fun way to follow the season. They aren't predictions, picks, or advice of any kind, and there's nothing to buy.